Crawford, TX hometown of Bush scolds president and supports Kerry

[Sir_K]

http://www.s5000.com/what_the_huck/582/bush_kerry.php

If even the Texans express this much distaste for this cowboy, the world may have hope.

[miss.myra]

yeah it's too bad that I highly doubt Kerry stands a chance in this election.

The polls are close, but they're still in W. Bush's favor.

[cheebus420]

^ Anyone who believes the polls is being sold rubbish.

1) Polls do not affect anyone without a cell phone
2) Polls do not show youth vote.

Do the math and ofcourse bush looks like he's ahead. As far as the country itself goes ... Bush's days are numbered.

Whenver you want optimism: www.michaelmoore.com , or www.gnn.tv

[Sir_K]

Actually that is an interesting topic.

The Polls in Canada expressed that there would be a very tight race between the Conservatives and the Liberals, which vaporised come election day.

IMO, these surveys and polls are fundamentally flawed in a day and age where people look at CID phones and decide not to answer.

Since the Republican / Conservative base consists of older people, those in rural areas, and those who live a somewhat more "simple life", I personally beleive that these people are more likely to pick up the phone and actually talk to the telephone survey pollster people.

Younger people, are more likely to play games with the telemarketer, as many of us have actually done some of it ourselves (come on, we've all done it.. my personal favorite was a recent call from the Shriners to raise money- they were trying to explain who the Shriners were and I kept insisting they were the guys with the monkey on the little bike. eventually the supervisor came on the phone and actually hung up on me. lol.

More sophisticated people with less time on their hands tend to look at the phone, see the 800 number calling and not even answer the phone, especially those in urban areas that are more bombarded by telemarketers, or simply give a "do not call this number ever again" order (which is required to be followed by law) and hang up.

Also with the surge in cellphone usage by younger people and urbanites, (these numbers cannot be placed on telemarketing lists unless the data is sourced directly from the phone owner) those more likely to be hit are using landline phones with public entries in the phone book (something women and urbanites tend to authorize less).

It seems to me there is a direct correlation here, IMO, that the people who avoid pollsters are more on the left side of the political spectrum, and those who are more likely to take the time to answer questions lean more to the right.

Which could make for the second major pollster upset in North America in as many years (Canadian, then American elections?)

Maybe then the elections will be decided again by people on election day, in leui of by pollsters in advance.

[miss.myra]

Originally Posted by cheebus420

^ Anyone who believes the polls is being sold rubbish.

1) Polls do not affect anyone without a cell phone
2) Polls do not show youth vote.

Do the math and ofcourse bush looks like he's ahead. As far as the country itself goes ... Bush's days are numbered.

Whenver you want optimism: www.michaelmoore.com , or www.gnn.tv

Yeah, I've heard of michael moore, guerilla news and other mcliberal things. I don't think I've met anyone who hasn't :p

hokay, if the polls don't say shit, do you honestly think kerry stands a chance? Did we think Al Gore did? He may have barely 'won' but he still 'lost', bizzarely enough. Seriously, only something like 16 or 17 US states will decide this election. Trust me, a lot more Americans still agree with and support Bush than we'd all like.

oh, less young people vote in the USA than in Canada. In Canada the statistic is approximately 25 percent of young people.

[Senior]

Originally Posted by miss.myra

Yeah, I've heard of michael moore, guerilla news and other mcliberal things. I don't think I've met anyone who hasn't :p

hokay, if the polls don't say shit, do you honestly think kerry stands a chance? Did we think Al Gore did? He may have barely 'won' but he still 'lost', bizzarely enough. Seriously, only something like 16 or 17 US states will decide this election. Trust me, a lot more Americans still agree with and support Bush than we'd all like.

oh, less young people vote in the USA than in Canada. In Canada the statistic is approximately 25 percent of young people.

The one thing I know that suggests that the polls are wrong is that 3,000,000+ new young people and low income earners were registered to vote in this election. As Myra mentioned there is usually a very low voter turnout for young people and with all the new voters that are unaccounted for by the polling who knows what the result will be. In the end though only one poll will actually matter and we won't know the results untill November 2nd.

My prediction? Dubya will be taking job offers from Haliburton a little more serious.

[Sir_K]

Originally Posted by Senior

My prediction? Dubya will be taking job offers from Haliburton a little more serious.

OR Lee Harvey Oswald's son comes calling to keep the honor in the family name

[axion]

imo, here's why kerry will never win.

young democrats are one of the most outspoken and potentially one of the most powerful groups of voters in the US right now. and they will do everything in their power to make sure bush loses, except actually goto the polls and vote. the demographic that they fall under is one of the least likely, if not the least likely, to show up and vote on election day.

[Senior]

Originally Posted by axion

imo, here's why kerry will never win.

young democrats are one of the most outspoken and potentially one of the most powerful groups of voters in the US right now. and they will do everything in their power to make sure bush loses, except actually goto the polls and vote. the demographic that they fall under is one of the least likely, if not the least likely, to show up and vote on election day.

The last election was very, very close. Add in 3 million new voters that are overwhelmingly democrats and what's going to happen? Even if only 1 in 10 make it to the polls it would still make a huge difference.

[miss.myra]

too bad popular vote does not necessarily determine the results of a US election.

That whole US electoral college system is completely bizarre, I don't think most Americans really clearly understand it.