The End of the Industrial Age

[-ff-]

By the time someone figures that out, it will be far, far too late.


We're in the end times now.

[Canar]

Originally Posted by wum

Your thoughts? :)

Non-mining methods of producing gasoline and/or fuel are only several times more expensive than oil mining. Biodiesel is slowly approaching parity with diesel. The fear of running out of fuel is hardly a worry. Chemistry is advancing slowly but steadily, and biotechnology will keep lowering the cost of other fuels like ethanol.

Really, this is mostly a non-issue these days. Alternate fuel sources are coming to the forefront. I mean, it's not like running out of oil reserves is a completely new idea...

[Leviathan]

Its not a new idea, but my guess is that oil consumption isn't a linear curve either, so something needs to be thought of and implemented rather quickly. What are the alternate fuel sources you are talking about that are coming to the forefront? It seems to me the hydrogen economy is the closest and from first hand experience I can tell you its not all that close for consumer use. I've been working in the fuel cell industry for the past 4 years.

Originally Posted by Canar

Non-mining methods of producing gasoline and/or fuel are only several times more expensive than oil mining. Biodiesel is slowly approaching parity with diesel. The fear of running out of fuel is hardly a worry. Chemistry is advancing slowly but steadily, and biotechnology will keep lowering the cost of other fuels like ethanol.

Really, this is mostly a non-issue these days. Alternate fuel sources are coming to the forefront. I mean, it's not like running out of oil reserves is a completely new idea...

[wum]

You guys need to listen to the bloody interview:

http://www.innersites.com/feet2fire/...f-09-26-04.ram

^This tells you WHY alternative fuels will make almost no difference.

Skip the first 10 minutes.

[Senior]

Originally Posted by Canar

Non-mining methods of producing gasoline and/or fuel are only several times more expensive than oil mining. Biodiesel is slowly approaching parity with diesel. The fear of running out of fuel is hardly a worry. Chemistry is advancing slowly but steadily, and biotechnology will keep lowering the cost of other fuels like ethanol.

Really, this is mostly a non-issue these days. Alternate fuel sources are coming to the forefront. I mean, it's not like running out of oil reserves is a completely new idea...

Good job not reading the thread!

If you think this is our solution than you need to figure out a few things.

How much soy does it take to create one barrel of bio diesel? Once you know that you need to know how much land it takes to grow that much soy. Now multiply that by 82 million and that's how much land you need to farm with soy beans for one day worth of energy if we are going to replace fossil fuels. By the way we need that much fuel for every single day of the year.

I'm not trying drown your enthusiasm, I'm just being realistic. Are we going to cover the entire planet in soy beans to produce enough of this fuel?

[Canar]

Originally Posted by Leviathan

What are the alternate fuel sources you are talking about that are coming to the forefront?

Biodiesel, for one. There's a link there. It's the only real commercially-available one. The state of Georgia alone, in study can produce roughly 30 million litres a year, given currently existing sources of feedstock material. It won't reach the production level of crude, that's true, but it's one of the possible options.

The upper limit of Earth's energy usage is, roughly, the total amount of sunlight hitting the planet at any given time. The trouble is harvesting the sunlight, and harvesting it all isn't feasible.

"The oil use pattern will follow a bell curve." False. If we're still on the upslope of the bell curve, we've got time before we reach the peak. As we start to peak, oil prices will go up. As oil prices go up, alternatives will start to become more feasible. He's over-simplifying. The economics are much more complex.

The US is trying to keep the economy going by maintaining its oil supply.

We are running out of cheap energy. This is true. The lack of cheap energy will have deleterious effects on the world economy. This is also true. The lack of cheap energy will not bring about the end of the world. It will force us to adapt. There'll be a point in time that the situation is worst, which is still yet to come.

We will adapt. We will work around it. This is not a hurdle that cannot be overcome. How will we do it? I'm not sure yet. Alternate transportation methods. Technology. It may come to war. Be aware of the situation and move to fix the problem. We're researching. The big question is: how much will a litre of gas (or its equivalent) cost when things are at their worst? $4.00? $10.00? For some situations, $4.00/L is acceptable for transportation. $10.00/L is also acceptable for some situations as well.

Overpopulation is as pressing an issue, if not a greater issue. Energy prices will eventually stabilize.

[Canar]

Here is another, less sensationalist view on peak oil and the Hubbert peak.

Remember: you're listening to media. Media is sensationalist by nature, because it's more interesting than non-sensationalist information.

[Senior]

Originally Posted by Canar

Here is another, less sensationalist view on peak oil and the Hubbert peak.

Remember: you're listening to media. Media is sensationalist by nature, because it's more interesting than non-sensationalist information.

I don't see that anything on that page disputes what I said. I read a lot of different sources so go easy on trying to sweep away my whole argument by calling it sensationalist and discrediting my sources. Anyway thanks for the link, it does provide a pretty good break down of things.

The one thing I'd point out is they need to remove the "if" from when oil will peak. It's not if but when. Also I like the way they explain the whole hydrogen economy or I guess you could say debunk it.

Also the one thing I just realized is through all of that they never mention anything about global warming. I think that definitely needs to be a part of the whole equation.

[Canar]

Originally Posted by Senior

I don't see that anything on that page disputes what I said. I read a lot of different sources so go easy on trying to sweep away my whole argument by calling it sensationalist and discrediting my sources. Anyway thanks for the link, it does provide a pretty good break down of things.

I didn't mean to attempt to sweep away the entire argument. You've got a valid point, but the linked radio show is notably sensationalist.

Something's going to happen eventually, that's for sure. However, when it happens, it happens. I'm not ruling out some technological advance rendering some of the points raised moot (ie. cold fusion, or hell, a better working form of fusion) yet. SpaceShipOne and the Ansari X-Prize decreased the cost of getting into space by a couple orders of magnitude. The energy crisis is still not here yet. It may come on so gradually that the economy can adapt. It may be made irrelevant by technological advance. It may cease to be a factor due to something I can't predict. If you turn out to be right, I'll be the first to admit I was wrong, but I think it's too early to say that the end of very cheap energy will be the end of an age.

Oh, and ignore my ranting about the bell curve stuff. I was talking out of my ass. Dammit, I need to catch that earlier. :(